AustraliaVotes 2025
Your comprehensive guide to the 2025 Federal Election. Track polls, explore policies, and discover where you stand on the political compass.
Election Guide Sections
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Understanding the 2025 Election
Everything you need to know about Australia's upcoming federal election
Current Government
How Voting Works
Preferential voting for House of Representatives
Proportional representation for Senate
Compulsory voting for citizens 18+
76 seats needed for majority government
What's at Stake
The 2025 election will determine whether the Labor government secures a second term or if the Coalition returns to power. Key policy debates focus on economic management, cost of living, climate action, and national security.
Current Voting Intentions
Track the latest polls and see how party support is trending
Latest Polls
Current polling data shows a tight race heading into the 2025 election.
Primary Vote
Source: Roy Morgan Research | Last updated: April 30, 2025
Key Insight
Labor's primary vote now leads the Coalition for the first time since October 2023
Current Leader
Labor leads primary vote with significant gains in the final weeks of the campaign
Notable Trend
Greens polling at 14.5%, their highest level in six months
Primary Vote
Source: Roy Morgan Research | Last updated: April 30, 2025
Key Insight
Labor's primary vote now leads the Coalition for the first time since October 2023
Current Leader
Labor leads primary vote with significant gains in the final weeks of the campaign
Notable Trend
Greens polling at 14.5%, their highest level in six months
Two-Party Preferred
Source: Roy Morgan Research | Last updated: April 30, 2025
Current TPP Lead
Labor leads Coalition by 11.0% in two-party preferred terms
Swing Since 2022
3.4% swing to Labor since the last election
Projected Outcome
Based on uniform swing: Labor Victory with increased majority
Polling Trends
Two-party preferred voting intention over 12 months | Source: Aggregated polls | Last updated: April 30, 2025
Key Trend Analysis
Labor Resurgence: Labor has seen a dramatic recovery since February 2025, with an 6.5 point swing in their favor over just two months.
Coalition Decline: The Coalition's support has fallen significantly since President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement in early April.
Voter Movement
Analysis suggests that voters are returning to Labor from minor parties, with cost of living concerns now less of a factor.
YouGov polling shows Anthony Albanese is now the preferred Prime Minister in every demographic group and geographic region across the country.
Seat Projections
Projected Seat Distribution
Projected seats based on current polling | 76 seats needed for majority | Last updated: April 30, 2025
Likelihood of Outcomes
Analysis
Current polling shows Labor is projected to win a substantial majority with 85 seats. The Coalition has seen a significant decline in support since President Trump's tariff announcements in early April. Labor is now leading in all states except Queensland according to YouGov polling, with Prime Minister Albanese leading as preferred PM across all demographics and regions. With only days until the May 3 election and many Australians already voting early, the Coalition's path to victory appears increasingly narrow.
Key Electorates to Watch
These marginal seats will likely determine who forms government
Most Marginal Seats
These seats have the smallest margins and could swing with minimal voter movement
All Marginal Electorates
| Electorate | State | Margin | Incumbent | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macquarie | NSW | 0.2% | Labor | Ultra-Marginal |
| Gilmore | NSW | 0.2% | Liberal | Ultra-Marginal |
| Robertson | NSW | 0.8% | Labor | Marginal |
| Bennelong | NSW | 1.2% | Labor | Marginal |
| Reid | NSW | 1.2% | Labor | Marginal |
| Banks | NSW | 1.4% | Labor | Marginal |
| Parramatta | NSW | 0.6% | Labor | Marginal |
| Page | NSW | 1.9% | Labor | Marginal |
| Deakin | VIC | 0.9% | Liberal | Marginal |
| Chisholm | VIC | 1.1% | Labor | Marginal |
| Higgins | VIC | 1.2% | Labor | Marginal |
| Casey | VIC | 1.5% | Labor | Marginal |
| Menzies | VIC | 1.7% | Labor | Marginal |
| Brisbane | QLD | 0.6% | Greens | Marginal |
| Griffith | QLD | 1.8% | Greens | Marginal |
| Ryan | QLD | 2.5% | Greens | Marginal |
| Lilley | QLD | 0.8% | Labor | Marginal |
| Longman | QLD | 0.9% | Labor | Marginal |
| Blair | QLD | 1.2% | Labor | Marginal |
| Leichhardt | QLD | 4.2% | Liberal | Marginal |
| Swan | WA | 3.2% | Labor | Marginal |
| Hasluck | WA | 1.2% | Labor | Marginal |
| Pearce | WA | 2.7% | Labor | Marginal |
| Tangney | WA | 3.7% | Labor | Marginal |
| Boothby | SA | 3.9% | Labor | Marginal |
| Sturt | SA | 2.5% | Liberal | Marginal |
| Bass | TAS | 1.4% | Liberal | Marginal |
| Braddon | TAS | 2.7% | Liberal | Marginal |
| Lyons | TAS | 5.3% | Labor | Marginal |
| Lingiari | NT | 1.0% | Labor | Marginal |
| Solomon | NT | 3.7% | Labor | Marginal |
| Canberra | ACT | 3.9% | Labor | Marginal |
Understanding Margins
Margins represent the winning candidate's lead after preference distribution. Ultra-marginal seats (<1%) can flip with minimal voter movement.
Path to Victory
76 seats needed for majority. Labor holds 26 marginals, Coalition 6, Greens 3. Small swings could determine the winner.
Key Election Issues
The following issues are expected to dominate the 2025 election campaign based on current polling and trends.
Economy & Cost of Living
HighRising inflation and interest rates have made cost of living the top concern for voters.
Climate Change
MediumEnvironmental policies and renewable energy targets remain divisive issues.
Housing Affordability
HighProperty prices and rental availability are critical concerns in metropolitan areas.
National Security
MediumDefense spending and regional security arrangements in the Indo-Pacific.
Indigenous Affairs
MediumReconciliation and constitutional recognition remain on the agenda.
Discover Your Political Position
Want to see how your views align with the major parties on these key issues? Take our comprehensive political quiz to find your place on the political compass.
2022 Results
Historical results from the 2022 election
2022 Election Results
Analysis of the previous federal election outcomes
Primary Vote
Seat Distribution
- Labor
- Coalition
- Greens
- Independent
- Others
Two-Party Preferred Result
Turnout: 89.82% (-2.07%) | Invalid votes: 5.19% (-0.35%) | Total registered voters: 17,213,433