2025 Australian
Federal Election
Stay informed with the latest polling, insights, and analysis as Australia prepares for the next federal election.
Expected Election Date
May 3, 2025
Days Remaining
-9 days
Seats in House
150
Election Timeline
Key dates and deadlines for the 2025 election cycle.
Polling Locations
Find your nearest polling station and voting information.
Key Electorates
Marginal seats that will decide the election outcome.
Overview
Federal Election Overview
The 2025 Australian federal election is expected to be held in May 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. All 150 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate will be up for election.
Current Parliament
Electoral System
Australia uses a preferential voting system for the House of Representatives and proportional representation for the Senate.
Voting is compulsory for eligible Australian citizens aged 18 and over.
The party or coalition that wins a majority of seats in the House of Representatives forms government.
What's at Stake
The 2025 election will determine whether the Labor government secures a second term or if the Coalition returns to power. Key policy debates are expected to focus on economic management, cost of living, climate action, and national security.See a direct comparison of Liberal vs Labor policies.
Latest Polls
Latest Polls
Current polling data shows a tight race heading into the 2025 election.
Primary Vote
Source: Roy Morgan Research | Last updated: April 30, 2025
Key Insight
Labor's primary vote now leads the Coalition for the first time since October 2023
Current Leader
Labor leads primary vote with significant gains in the final weeks of the campaign
Notable Trend
Greens polling at 14.5%, their highest level in six months
Primary Vote
Source: Roy Morgan Research | Last updated: April 30, 2025
Key Insight
Labor's primary vote now leads the Coalition for the first time since October 2023
Current Leader
Labor leads primary vote with significant gains in the final weeks of the campaign
Notable Trend
Greens polling at 14.5%, their highest level in six months
Two-Party Preferred
Source: Roy Morgan Research | Last updated: April 30, 2025
Current TPP Lead
Labor leads Coalition by 11.0% in two-party preferred terms
Swing Since 2022
3.4% swing to Labor since the last election
Projected Outcome
Based on uniform swing: Labor Victory with increased majority
Polling Trends
Two-party preferred voting intention over 12 months | Source: Aggregated polls | Last updated: April 30, 2025
Key Trend Analysis
Labor Resurgence: Labor has seen a dramatic recovery since February 2025, with an 6.5 point swing in their favor over just two months.
Coalition Decline: The Coalition's support has fallen significantly since President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement in early April.
Voter Movement
Analysis suggests that voters are returning to Labor from minor parties, with cost of living concerns now less of a factor.
YouGov polling shows Anthony Albanese is now the preferred Prime Minister in every demographic group and geographic region across the country.
Seat Projections
Projected Seat Distribution
Projected seats based on current polling | 76 seats needed for majority | Last updated: April 30, 2025
Likelihood of Outcomes
Analysis
Current polling shows Labor is projected to win a substantial majority with 85 seats. The Coalition has seen a significant decline in support since President Trump's tariff announcements in early April. Labor is now leading in all states except Queensland according to YouGov polling, with Prime Minister Albanese leading as preferred PM across all demographics and regions. With only days until the May 3 election and many Australians already voting early, the Coalition's path to victory appears increasingly narrow.
Electorates
Key Battleground Electorates
These marginal seats are likely to determine the outcome of the 2025 election. A swing of just a few percentage points in these electorates could change the government.
Labor-held Marginals
23
Coalition-held Marginals
6
Greens-held Marginals
3
Ultra-Marginal Seats
2
Margin < 1%
Total Battlegrounds
32
Top 10 Most Marginal Seats
These seats have the smallest margins and are the most likely to change hands with even a minor swing in voter preference.
Marginal Electorates
| Electorate | State | Margin | Incumbent | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macquarie | NSW | 0.2% | Labor | Ultra-Marginal |
| Gilmore | NSW | 0.2% | Liberal | Ultra-Marginal |
| Robertson | NSW | 0.8% | Labor | Marginal |
| Bennelong | NSW | 1.2% | Labor | Marginal |
| Reid | NSW | 1.2% | Labor | Marginal |
| Banks | NSW | 1.4% | Labor | Marginal |
| Parramatta | NSW | 0.6% | Labor | Marginal |
| Page | NSW | 1.9% | Labor | Marginal |
| Deakin | VIC | 0.9% | Liberal | Marginal |
| Chisholm | VIC | 1.1% | Labor | Marginal |
| Higgins | VIC | 1.2% | Labor | Marginal |
| Casey | VIC | 1.5% | Labor | Marginal |
| Menzies | VIC | 1.7% | Labor | Marginal |
| Brisbane | QLD | 0.6% | Greens | Marginal |
| Griffith | QLD | 1.8% | Greens | Marginal |
| Ryan | QLD | 2.5% | Greens | Marginal |
| Lilley | QLD | 0.8% | Labor | Marginal |
| Longman | QLD | 0.9% | Labor | Marginal |
| Blair | QLD | 1.2% | Labor | Marginal |
| Leichhardt | QLD | 4.2% | Liberal | Marginal |
| Swan | WA | 3.2% | Labor | Marginal |
| Hasluck | WA | 1.2% | Labor | Marginal |
| Pearce | WA | 2.7% | Labor | Marginal |
| Tangney | WA | 3.7% | Labor | Marginal |
| Boothby | SA | 3.9% | Labor | Marginal |
| Sturt | SA | 2.5% | Liberal | Marginal |
| Bass | TAS | 1.4% | Liberal | Marginal |
| Braddon | TAS | 2.7% | Liberal | Marginal |
| Lyons | TAS | 5.3% | Labor | Marginal |
| Lingiari | NT | 1.0% | Labor | Marginal |
| Solomon | NT | 3.7% | Labor | Marginal |
| Canberra | ACT | 3.9% | Labor | Marginal |
What Makes a Seat Marginal?
Seats are considered marginal when they're held by a margin of less than 6%. Ultra-marginal seats have margins under 1% and can change hands with just a small swing in voter preference.
Margins indicate the percentage by which the winning candidate defeated their closest competitor after the distribution of preferences.
Path to Victory
To form government, a party needs to win at least 76 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. Both major parties will focus their campaigns on these key battleground electorates.
Labor currently holds 26 marginal seats, while the Coalition holds 6 and the Greens hold 3. A uniform swing of just 1.5% could change the outcome of the election.
Key Issues
Key Election Issues
The following issues are expected to dominate the 2025 election campaign based on current polling and trends.
Economy & Cost of Living
High PriorityRising inflation and interest rates have made cost of living the top concern for voters. Learn more
Climate Change
Medium PriorityEnvironmental policies and renewable energy targets remain divisive issues. Learn more
Housing Affordability
High PriorityProperty prices and rental availability are critical concerns in metropolitan areas. Learn more
Healthcare
Medium PriorityStrengthening Medicare and addressing hospital wait times. Learn more
National Security
Medium PriorityDefense spending and regional security arrangements in the Indo-Pacific. Learn more
Indigenous Affairs
Medium PriorityReconciliation and constitutional recognition remain on the agenda. Learn more
Issue Analysis
Want to see how your views align with the major parties on these key issues?
2022 Results
2022 Election Results
Analysis of the previous federal election outcomes
Primary Vote
Seat Distribution
- Labor
- Coalition
- Greens
- Independent
- Others
Two-Party Preferred Result
Turnout: 89.82% (-2.07%) | Invalid votes: 5.19% (-0.35%) | Total registered voters: 17,213,433