A Liberal leadership spill in Victoria needs a simple majority of MPs to declare the positions vacant, followed by secret two-round ballots until one candidate holds an absolute majority.
Triggering a spill motion
The Victorian Liberal Party's leadership can be challenged through a formal spill motion, which represents the democratic mechanism by which the parliamentary party can change its leadership. This process reflects the party's commitment to ensuring that leaders maintain the confidence of their colleagues.
Any MP may move 'that the leadership positions be declared vacant'. This motion requires a simple majority to pass (half plus one of the party room). Vacancies also occur automatically after a state election defeat or retirement of the leader.
Spill motion procedures
- Notice requirements: While not constitutionally mandated, convention requires 24 hours' notice to the parliamentary party
- Quorum: Two-thirds of MPs must be present or available via teleconference
- Voting method: Secret ballot conducted by the party whip or deputy whip
- Threshold: Simple majority needed to declare positions vacant
- Immediate effect: If passed, leadership positions become vacant immediately and nominations open
Automatic vacancy triggers
Leadership positions become vacant automatically in specific circumstances:
- Election defeat: Loss of government triggers automatic leadership spill
- Resignation: Leader voluntarily stepping down
- Expulsion: Removal from the parliamentary party (requires three-quarters majority)
- Loss of seat: Leader losing their electorate at an election
Leadership contest vote tallies 2018-2024
Two-round secret ballot process
Once a spill motion passes, the Victorian Liberal Party employs a structured ballot system designed to ensure the winner enjoys majority support within the parliamentary party. This process can extend over multiple rounds if necessary.
Leadership Ballot Process
Ballot mechanics
The ballot process follows strict procedures to ensure fairness and transparency:
- Secret ballot: All votes cast in private with no public declaration
- Absolute majority: Winner must receive more than half of valid votes cast
- Elimination rounds: Lowest-polling candidate removed each round until two remain
- Tie-breaking: Drawing lots resolves exact ties (Constitution Schedule 3-4)
- Immediate counting: Results announced after each round
Deputy leadership
The deputy leader position is typically filled by the runner-up in the leadership ballot, though they can decline the role. If declined, a separate ballot is held for deputy leader among remaining candidates.
Party-room size vs winning majority
Recent leadership contests (2018-2024)
The Victorian Liberal Party has experienced significant leadership volatility since 2018, reflecting broader challenges in opposition and internal party dynamics.
2018: O'Brien defeats Pesutto
Following the 2018 election defeat, Michael O'Brien successfully challenged John Pesutto in the leadership ballot, winning 25-14. This contest established O'Brien as leader during the party's transition to opposition.
2021: Guy's return
After a 20-11 spill vote against O'Brien, Matthew Guy returned as leader unopposed, marking an unusual comeback for a former leader. The spill reflected growing dissatisfaction with O'Brien's leadership style and public profile.
2024: Battin's victory
Following John Pesutto's resignation amid party controversies, Brad Battin won the leadership ballot 17-12 over Richard Riordan, representing a new generation of Liberal leadership.
Leadership Tenure Analysis
Factors influencing leadership changes
Several factors have contributed to leadership instability:
- Electoral performance: Poor polling often triggers leadership speculation
- Media profile: Leaders struggling with public communication face internal pressure
- Factional dynamics: Different party factions seeking to assert influence
- Policy disagreements: Internal disputes over party direction and positioning
- External controversies: Public scandals or missteps affecting party unity
Key Leadership Rules
The Victorian Liberal Party's leadership election rules reflect a commitment to democratic decision-making within the parliamentary party while ensuring leaders have sufficient support to govern effectively. The recent period of leadership instability highlights the challenges facing the party in opposition and the importance of maintaining unity around chosen leaders.
To understand more about the party's broader structure, see our guide to the Victorian Liberal Party structure, or learn about membership options and costs.